The mathematics of technology

In the spirit of Hari Seldon, I recently replied to this Internet Evolution blog post looking at how to describe changes in technology with mathematical formulas.

• record player > cassette player
• cassette player > track player
• CD player > cassette player
• CD player > record player
• MP3 player > CD player

• cell phone > car phone
• cell phone >pager
• cell phone 2008 = cell phone 2007 + PDA

• (cell phone 2008 + MP3 player) = smart phone (android, iPhone etc.)

• over-the-air black and white TV > over-the-air radio
• over-the-air color TV > over-the-air black and white TV
• cable TV > over-the-air color TV
• (cable TV + internet) will soon = tele-internet

• (tele-internet + smart phone) = one electronic device that does it all

These formulas are mostly lagging – looking at historic events.  Isaac Asimov in the Foundation Series books created the idea of psychohistory, which was a form of math that could predict the future in probabilistic terms.  Maybe someday….